Anyone with eyes and ears can tell that incumbent presidential candidate Joe Biden isn’t too well at present. But a recent set of polls spells even more disaster for him – and no, not all of it is because of Trump.
As you have likely noticed, Donald Trump is doing quite well for himself. Despite having been indicted four times this year and allegedly guilty of some 90 crimes, he still seems to be America’s favorite presidential candidate.
While he hasn’t won the Republican nomination yet, polls from just about everywhere and everyone show that, as of now, there’s little chance of him not getting the RNC’s vote. His closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, trails by about 48 points or so.
Naturally, the bigger question is if he can pull off a win against Biden in the general election, presuming that 2024 ends up being a rematch of 2020 and that Biden wins his own party’s nomination.
Back in October, such a Trump win was definitely a bit questionable.
According to a Redfield and Wilton poll released in October, in most key “battleground” states, Trump and Biden were either tied or Biden was in the lead. In Michigan, the competitors both ended up with 41 percent of the vote, and in Pennsylvania, Biden just barely won with 43 to 42 percent.
You may note that these margins are rather similar to what was seen in 2020, when Trump and Biden were also very close in a number of key states, with most swinging just slightly one way or the other.
However, since the October poll was taken, something happened: Senator Robert F. Kennedy announced a third-party run.
As a Democratic candidate, there was virtually no way he would ever take enough votes from either Biden or Trump, with respective party members more likely to be loyal to the more well-known name.
But as an independent, RFK essentially has stepped outside the box, giving voters who aren’t particularly happy with their two-party options another choice.
And according to the polls, it’s pretty clear with the voter base he appeals more to.
As Redfield and Wilton reported, “More Biden 2020 than Trump 2020 voters say they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if he were a candidate in all six states polled. In fact, more than twice as many Biden 2020 as Trump 2020 voters would vote for RFK Jr. in North Carolina (11 to 5 percent) and Michigan (11 to 4 percent).”
And just like that, Biden’s slim lead or tie has been obliterated by Trump.
According to the poll, Trump now squarely leads in all six key states (Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Georgia).
That tie in Michigan is now 39 to 38 in Trump’s favor. Biden’s one percent lead in Pennsylvania has turned into a 44 to 37 percent defeat. In Florida, Trump leads Biden 44 to 34 percent. Arizona voters gave Trump a 40 to 33 percent win. Georgians voted 45 to 35 percent for Trump, and in North Carolina, Biden lost 44 to 35 percent.
Now, to be clear, it’s no surprise that Trump would win in states like Florida or North Carolina, as these have been rather staunchly red-leaning for a while now. Hell, even third-place GOP candidate Nikki Haley beats Biden in North Carolina. And, of course, DeSantis wins Biden in Florida.
It’s also important to point out that in the previous polls, as well as in 2020, Biden only won the other “battleground” states by the smallest margin possible. It’s one of the reasons why there was such contention in states like Arizona and Georgia following that election, with some, including Trump, alleging voter fraud that could have given him a win instead of Biden.
Additionally, there is nearly a whole year left until the fateful election, and much can happen in that time.
However, all the signs are there: Biden is not doing well against Trump. And RFK Jr may be the key.