President Joe Biden is losing support among many voting blocs, but this one may hurt him the most. Those without college degrees are turning away from the President in record numbers.
Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling indicates that Biden is experiencing a decline in support among voters without college degrees. This demographic includes Black individuals, Hispanic women, young voters, and suburban women. This decline has resulted in a much closer race against his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, than in the 2020 election. Biden’s support among this group has dropped by ten percentage points since the 2020 campaign, based on a comparative analysis of approximately 24,000 registered voter responses to Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in 2020 and 2024.
However, Biden holds on to his lead among the elite, with support remaining high among those with college degrees making more than $100 thousand a year.
However, a separate poll suggests that those who don’t support Biden are not necessarily turning to Trump. According to the survey, one in ten Republican registered voters was less inclined to vote for Trump after his guilty verdict in the hush money trial, potentially handing Biden a break. Still, the poll indicated that Biden currently holds a razor-slim lead of 2 percentage points over Trump, significantly lower than the 6-point lead he had at this same time in 2020.
Many voters express confidence in Trump’s physical and mental fitness for the presidency, with over a third feeling extremely or very confident in each aspect.
However, confidence in Biden’s physical and mental fitness is notably lower, with only around 15% feeling very confident in his physical fitness and 21% feeling extremely or very confident in his mental fitness. Most voters are unsatisfied with Biden’s physical fitness or mental acuity.
White voters predominantly support Trump over Biden, with 56% favoring Trump and 42% favoring Biden. Among Black voters, the majority strongly support Biden, with 77% in his favor compared to 18% for Trump. Hispanic voters are more evenly split, with 52% supporting Biden and 44% backing Trump. Asian voters largely support Biden, with 59% favoring him compared to 36% for Trump.
Most validated 2020 voters who cast their ballots for Biden (91% of those surveyed) and Trump (94% of respondents) support the same candidate for 2024. However, among registered voters who did not vote in 2020, support is evenly divided, with 48% backing Trump and 46% supporting Biden.
However, the biggest hiccup in the 2024 election is that nearly half of voters would replace Biden and Trump altogether. Biden’s supporters are more inclined to express a desire to replace both candidates if given the chance, with about 62% sharing this view, while only 35% of Trump supporters do the same. Additionally, there are noticeable age discrepancies in these opinions: 66% of these voters under 30, 54% of those aged 30 to 49, and less than half (43%) of those aged 50 and older indicate they would replace both candidates if given the opportunity.
Biden has already lost the youth vote. Younger voters, mainly those aged 18-29, hold negative views of President Biden’s job performance, with only 24% approving. They also have an unfavorable opinion of him (62%), while Trump receives a slightly more favorable rating among this age group. However, younger voters are not necessarily shifting their support heavily towards Trump; many have unfavorable opinions of both candidates, earning the label “double haters.” This demographic, including those under 45 and Gen Z/Millennials, are among the most likely to consider skipping the presidential line on their 2024 ballot. Additionally, Gen Z/Millennials are more likely to support RFK Jr. as a presidential candidate (11%).
Younger voters are even less satisfied with Biden’s handling of the economy and immigration than the overall population. For instance, only 37% of voters aged 18-29 approved Biden’s handling of the economy, and just 23% approved his handling of immigration.
And it seems that for most voters, the race is already over. These voters are evenly divided among Biden and Trump, with 68% of those surveyed for each saying their minds are made up. For some, however, the choice remains uncertain. Gen Z/Millennials and independents are the least likely to have made up their minds, with one in five independent women expressing genuine indecision, the highest among any group.
While Biden focuses his attention on the older white college-educated voters, Trump is scooping up the leftovers. However, with only 31% of Americans holding college degrees, it seems Trump is playing for the right team.
