On Sunday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia is updating its nuclear policy due to what it believes is the West making the war with Ukraine worse.
The latest change in the Russian “rules” on using nuclear weapons is because of continued Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk border region.
Russia accused the West of supporting Ukraine’s cross-border attack, which has taken over nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory since August 6. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Sunday that Russia is changing its rules on when it can use nuclear weapons because it believes the West is “escalating” the war.
Ryabkov told Russian state media that Russia is close to finishing changes to its rules about using nuclear weapons. He did not say when the changes would be finished.
Ukraine’s attacks on Russian territory, especially on military targets with weapons supplied by the West, like long-range missiles, have increased the chances that Moscow might consider using nuclear weapons to defend its land.
Currently, Russia’s nuclear policy says it can use nuclear weapons if nuclear or other mass destruction weapons are used against it or if a targeted conventional attack threatens the very existence of the Russian state.
Russia would use nuclear weapons after getting confirmed information about ballistic missiles being launched against Russia or its allies. It could also happen if an enemy attacks government or military sites.
In its 2020 policy, Russia described nuclear weapons as a “means of deterrence” and said they would only be used as a last resort. Russia called its nuclear policy “defensive” and said it works to reduce the nuclear threat and avoid worsening international relations that could lead to conflicts, including nuclear ones.
But since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that Moscow would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if Russia’s territory and sovereignty were at risk.
In May, Russia practiced using tactical nuclear weapons near the Ukraine border and also placed these weapons in Belarus, a country that is its ally. Tactical nuclear weapons destroy specific targets like military bases or training centers.
Although these weapons are less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons, which can destroy entire cities, using them would be a significant step up in the conflict and could raise fears of a direct clash with the West.
As far back as June, Putin suggested that Russia might change its rules about using nuclear weapons. He said the country’s nuclear policy is flexible and can be updated.
Since Ukraine started attacks on the Kursk border region about a month ago, Russia seems to be getting its people and the world ready for changes in its nuclear weapons policy. In August, Russia’s foreign minister, his deputy, and the Kremlin’s spokesperson said these changes will be announced soon.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said Ryabkov’s comments about changing Russia’s nuclear policy are just routine threats to scare the West into reducing its support for Ukraine.
The analysts noted that on September 1, Ryabkov mentioned that Russia might update its nuclear rules, but he didn’t give any specific dates for when this might happen. They also said Ryabkov didn’t explain what the changes might be. They think it’s still unlikely that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or have a nuclear confrontation elsewhere.
Even though Russia started the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it has framed the war as a fight for survival. It has accused the West of helping Ukraine to try to destroy Russia. Ukraine’s Western allies in NATO deny this, saying their military aid is meant to help Ukraine defend its land and independence.
David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, said in August that Russia’s military policy has always allowed for the use of nuclear weapons if its territory is threatened.
He described Ukraine’s attack on Kursk as a significant development. Roche said it could make nuclear conflict more likely by undermining NATO’s efforts to avoid escalating the situation. Roche added that by attacking Russia, Ukraine has removed many of the steps that NATO and the U.S. wanted to keep in place to prevent further escalation.
Ukrainian officials hope that crossing one of Russia’s “red lines” will ease Western worries about Putin using nuclear weapons. They hoped the incursion would encourage more NATO ally support.
It was a gamble with a madman in a war with no end in sight.
